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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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